Three aspects of the timing are unusual:
- Earlier in the year than normal, presumably to avoid clashing with the final stage of Brexit negotiations in November.
- Budget is being presented on a Monday (first time since 1962), normally it is a Wednesday after Prime Minister's Questions. This year that would mean it would fall on Halloween - a gift to headline writers - government denies that was a factor in choosing the day.
- Chancellor will start speaking about 15:30 GMT, three hours later than usual. Parliamentary business starts later on a Monday giving MPs time to travel to London from their constituencies.
Thoughts and Forecast
What we know
- The government has committed to finding an extra £20bn for the NHS by 2023. Ministers have indicated it will be partly funded by tax rises.
- Mrs May also said that the borrowing cap for local councils wanting to build new homes will be scrapped, potentially adding to the national debt.
- At the party conference Mrs May stated that she was extending the duty freeze for a ninth year in a row.
- Class 2 NIC continuing.
- The last scheduled Budget before Brexit.
So What could happen
- Increases in so called Sin taxes – duty on Cigarettes and Alcohol.
- Increase in personal Allowance - at the 2017 election that the thresholds would rise to £12,500 by 2020. Could be deferred.
- Increase in starting rate for 40% tax - at the 2017 election that the thresholds would rise to £50,000 by 2020. Could be deferred.
- VAT registration limited reduction – possibly a future measure as limit previously announced VAT registration limit set at £85,000 for 2 years from 01/04/2018.
- I am expecting more anti Avoidance Measures for those not prepared to pay the “right amount of tax”.
- Pensions Tax relief could be cut for those earning More than £150,000; I am expecting higher tax payers to have to be pay more tax in some shape or form.
- Possibly reduction in Capital gains Tax Allowances for the Wealthy.
- IR35 rules which changed in the public sector – may be extended to the Private sector – April 2019 or 2020. I expect more tax to be levied against the “Self-employed” as it seems to be viewed that self-employment is being “used incorrectly”.
- Some changes to Lifetime ISA's and Employee Share Schemes to encourage investment.
- Insurance Premium tax rise – currently 12% (increased from 6%) but lower that VAT 20%.
- Mr Hammond announced in his party conference speech that he intended to impose a new “digital services tax”. Possibly with deferred implementation